Pink Rose Society

Cincinnati Statehouse Battlegrounds 2026

The suburban Hamilton County Ohio House seats are the densest cluster of genuine statehouse toss-ups in Ohio — more competitive ground in one metro than Columbus or Cleveland offer combined.

The seats

  • HD-27 — Rachel Baker (D, incumbent) vs. Elizabeth Maier (R). Baker won ~55.8% in 2024; a top Republican target in the eastern suburbs. Toss-up.
  • HD-28 — Karen Brownlee (D, incumbent) vs. Jill Cole (R). Brownlee won ~55.9% in 2024, beating an anti-abortion activist; another single-digit suburban seat. Toss-up.
  • HD-26 — Ashley Bryant Bailey (D, incumbent) vs. Tom Brinkman Jr. (R). Lean Democratic; Brinkman is a former hardline-conservative legislator.
  • HD-29 (Cindy Abrams, R) and HD-30 (Mike Odioso, R) — Republican-held suburban seats Democrats are contesting (Bradner, Price). Democratic reach seats, lean/likely R.

The Cincinnati-core seats — HD-24 (Isaacsohn) and HD-25 (Thomas) — are safe Democratic and drew no Republican.

Why it matters

The Ohio House is a Republican supermajority; Democrats' path to loosening it runs through exactly these suburban seats. HD-27 and HD-28 are the marquee holds — narrow Democratic wins in 2024 that Republicans are contesting hard — while HD-29 and HD-30 are the reach. Together with the open SD-7, they make greater Cincinnati the state's real legislative battleground.

Sources